Operational risks

A 1 per cent change in deliveries and price of the Group’s products or significant input goods is deemed to affect Group operating profit as per the table to the right. Earnings are relatively evenly spread over the year. The clearest seasonal effects are lower personnel costs in the third quarter and the fact that electricity production at the hydro power plants is normally higher in the first and fourth quarters.

Impact on operating
profit, SEKm

Year 2021

Change

Price

Deliveries

Paperboard +/-1 % 61 28
Paper +/-1 % 54 15
Wood products +/-1 % 49 26
Wood from company forests +/-1 % 14 9
Hydro and wind power +/-1 % 5 3
       

Input goods

Year 2021

     
Wood* +/-1 % 38  
Electricity* +/-1 % 5  
Chemicals +/-1 % 13  
Other variable costs +/-1 % 8  
Delivery costs +/-1 % 18  
Employees +/-1 % 27  
Other fixed costs +/-1 % 14  

* Taking electricity price hedges for 2022 into account. Without taking hedges into account, the corresponding
figure would be SEK 23 million.


Financial risks

The table to the right shows the extent of the impact from a change in the Swedish krona, the price of electricity and the market interest rate on Group profit before tax and equity next year, taking account of hedging. The adopted change is calculated based on five years’
average historical volatility for each instrument, which is deemed a reasonable change going forward. Historical volatility on exchange rates is calculated based on average annual volatility on the KIX, the Riksbank’s exchange rate index. Excluding hedging, a 5 per cent change in the krona would affect earnings before tax by SEK 480 million a year.

Earnings before tax*

Year 2021

Change

SEKm

Exchange rates +/-5 % 165
SEK/EUR +/-5 % 45
SEK/USD +/-5 % 14
SEK/GBP +/-5 % 59
SEK/Other currencies +/-5 % 47
Borrowing rate +/-0.5 % unit 7
     

Equity

Change

SEKm

Transaction hedging +/-5 % 556
Investment hedging +/-5 % 14
Equity hedging +/-5 % 21
Electricity price hedging +/-40 % 1 282
Interest rate changes +/-0.5 % unit 7

*Estimated effect for 2022 including hedging.

 

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Financial risks

Operational risks