Sensitivity analysis for operational and financial risks.


Operational risks

A one per cent change in deliveries and price of the Group’s products or significant inputs is deemed to affect Group operating profit as per the table below. Earnings are relatively evenly spread over the year.

The clearest seasonal effects are lower personnel costs in the third quarter and the fact that electricity production at the hydro power plants is normally higher in the first and fourth quarters.

Impact on operating profit Change Prices Deliveries
Paperboard +/-1 % 51 29
Printing paper +/-1 % 54 18
Wood products +/-1 % 13 3
Wood from company forests +/-1 % 12 8
Hydro and wind power +/-1 % 3 3
 
Inputs      
Wood* +/-1 % 26  
Electricity* +/-1 % 12  
Chemicals +/-1 % 11  
Other variable costs +/-1 % 11  
Delivery costs +/-1 % 12  
Employees +/-1 % 23  
Other fixed costs +/-1 % 16  

 

* Taking account of harvesting of company forests and generation of own electricity, net earnings sensitivity for the Group is SEK 14 million for wood and SEK 10 million for electricity.

 

Financial risks

The table to the right shows the extent of the impact from a change in the Swedish krona, the market interest rate and the price of electricity on Group operating profit and equity, taking account of hedging. 

Earnings before tax Change SEKm
Exchange rates +/-1 % 18
  SEK/EUR +/-1 % 4
  SEK/USD +/-1 % 4
  SEK/GBP +/-1 % 8
  SEK/Other currencies +/-1 % 3
Borrowing rate +/-1 percentage point 21
Electricity price +/-1 % 1

 

Equity Change SEKm
Transaction hedging +/-1 % 98
Investment hedging +/-1 % 0
Equity hedging +/-1 % 13
Interest rate hedging +/-1 percentage point 20
Electricity hedging
+/-1 % 13
Debt/equity ratio
17

Net turnover (Msek)
15 513

Holmen AB, P.O. Box 5407, SE-114 84 Stockholm, Sweden.

Tel: +46 8 666 21 00  E-mail: info@holmen.com

  

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